What changed • Who it affects • Why it matters
Statewide Business Pulse
▲ Moving: Manufacturing across the nine-state Mid-America region expanded for a seventh consecutive month in August. Creighton University’s Business Conditions Index rose to 57.1 from 55.7 in July, but manufacturers continue to report tariff, inflation and input-cost pressure.
▬ Stable: U.S. manufacturing is also still expanding, although at a slower pace. The national ISM manufacturing index slipped to 54.6 in August from 55.6 in July. New orders remained above the growth line, but manufacturers reported continued pressure from steel, aluminum, copper and semiconductor costs.
▼ Down / Under Pressure: North Dakota agricultural exports weakened during the first half of 2026. Creighton’s state-level analysis reports agriculture and livestock exports were down $61 million, or 13.3%, from the same period in 2025, with exports to Mexico down 21.2%.
Watch: North Dakota’s special legislative session begins today. One business-related proposal changed before lawmakers convened: an amendment to the proposed ban on government nondisclosure agreements would preserve confidentiality for information already protected under state law. The bill remains broad enough to reach industrial projects beyond data centers.
Today’s Signals
1. Manufacturing / Supply Chain: Orders are holding, but the cost side is getting harder
What changed
Two new manufacturing reports released Tuesday point in the same general direction.
Creighton University’s Mid-America Business Conditions Index rose to 57.1 in August from 55.7 in July, its seventh consecutive month above the 50 growth-neutral level. The index covers North Dakota and eight other central states.
Nationally, the Institute for Supply Management reported manufacturing expanded for an eighth consecutive month, although its index declined to 54.6 from 55.6.
The warning is underneath the headline number.
Manufacturers continue to report elevated costs for materials including steel, aluminum, copper and semiconductors, along with price volatility and longer lead times.
Who it affects
North Dakota manufacturers, fabricators, machine shops, contractors, equipment manufacturers and dealers, agricultural equipment businesses, construction companies and businesses purchasing metal, electronics or manufactured components.
Why it matters
Demand hasn’t disappeared. Cost and supply uncertainty are becoming the bigger problem.
For a North Dakota business quoting work months in advance, today’s material price may not be the price when the job is actually built.
That makes quote expiration dates, supplier lead times and escalation language worth reviewing. Businesses that haven’t revisited those practices since supply chains normalized may be carrying more risk than they realize.
Source links:
Business Record — August Mid-America Business Conditions Index
Reuters — August U.S. manufacturing report
2. Agriculture / Markets: USDA is changing how it estimates crops after farmer criticism
What changed
USDA announced Tuesday that it will test satellite imagery, artificial intelligence and machine learning as part of an effort to improve crop acreage and yield estimates.
The pilot will involve NASA and other federal agencies and is intended to supplement the surveys and other information USDA traditionally uses to estimate crop production. USDA is also working on changes intended to make it easier for producers to submit information.
The announcement follows farmer criticism of USDA crop estimates and reductions in federal staffing used to collect agricultural data.
Who it affects
North Dakota grain and oilseed producers, elevators, commodity marketers, crop advisers, agricultural lenders and businesses whose purchasing or inventory decisions depend on USDA production estimates.
Why it matters
A government crop estimate can move a commodity market.
That means inaccurate acreage or yield estimates aren’t simply a statistical problem. They can affect the price a producer receives and the decisions farmers, elevators and buyers make about selling, storing and contracting grain.
Technology may improve those estimates, but satellite imagery and AI aren’t automatically more accurate than field information.
The useful development for North Dakota producers is that USDA has acknowledged the concern and is testing another way to measure what is actually happening in the field.
Source link:
Reuters — USDA to test satellites and AI for crop estimates
3. Regulation / Development: Proposed NDA restriction changes before today’s special session
What changed
North Dakota lawmakers begin their special session today, and one proposal with implications well beyond the issue that originally triggered the session was amended Tuesday.
SB 2406 would restrict state agencies and political subdivisions from entering nondisclosure agreements with developers concerning data centers and other industrial projects.
During Tuesday’s committee hearing, lawmakers added language clarifying that an agency could still enter a confidentiality agreement when the information involved is already confidential or exempt from disclosure under North Dakota law.
Gov. Kelly Armstrong told the committee the original language could create problems for entities including the Bank of North Dakota. He used the example that the bill could allow BND to protect information from a farm borrower while preventing similar confidentiality for an ethanol plant because the latter could fall under the definition of an industrial project.
Who it affects
Data-center developers, manufacturers, energy companies, utilities, large commercial and infrastructure developers, lenders, economic-development organizations and local governments negotiating potential projects.
Why it matters
This is exactly why businesses should watch bill language rather than bill headlines.
The discussion has centered heavily on data centers, but the legislation uses a broader definition of industrial projects. The amendment reduces one potential conflict involving information already protected by law, but it doesn’t eliminate the larger question of when businesses negotiating with government can expect confidentiality.
Because the session begins today, additional amendments are possible before the final legislation is known.
Source links:
North Dakota Monitor — NDA proposal amended ahead of special session
North Dakota Legislative Branch — September 2 special session
4. Infrastructure / Contractors: Federal disaster declaration unlocks recovery funding
What changed
President Trump approved North Dakota’s request Tuesday for a federal major disaster declaration covering the June 7–9 severe storms.
The storms produced estimated 80–100 mph straight-line winds, tornadoes, large hail and widespread utility damage. More than 25,000 customers lost power.
The declaration makes FEMA public assistance available for damaged public infrastructure. Gov. Kelly Armstrong said $3.4 million in disaster costs had been approved.
Who it affects
Electric utilities and cooperatives, local governments and the contractors, electricians, equipment companies, tree services and other businesses involved in infrastructure repair and replacement.
Why it matters
This doesn’t reimburse every business that suffered storm damage.
FEMA public assistance is aimed at eligible public infrastructure and recovery costs.
But the federal declaration matters to the businesses doing that recovery work because it helps communities and utilities pay for repairs and replacement that otherwise would have to compete with other local spending.
Source link:
North Dakota Governor’s Office — federal disaster declaration approved September 1
Risk / Opportunity
Risk: Manufacturing remains in expansion territory, but businesses that rely on metals, electronics and imported components are again facing the combination that can make fixed-price work painful: volatile input prices and longer lead times.
Opportunity: Federal disaster assistance will help move eligible North Dakota infrastructure recovery work forward, while continued manufacturing growth suggests underlying demand has not disappeared. Contractors and suppliers should distinguish between a slowing growth rate and an actual contraction.
Watch today: The special session can move quickly. NDBU’s special report identified several business-related bills before lawmakers convened; yesterday’s NDA amendment is already evidence that the final language may differ materially from the introduced versions.