What changed • Who it affects • Why it matters

Statewide Business Pulse

▲ Moving: North Dakota oil production climbed to 1.153 million barrels per day in June, up about 2.5% from May and slightly above the state revenue forecast. State officials also reported a noticeable increase in drilling activity entering August.

▬ Stable: The broader North Dakota business picture does not show a single statewide acceleration or contraction this morning. That makes industry-specific developments—particularly trade exposure and energy activity—more useful than trying to force one economic headline across every business.

▼ Down / Under Pressure: The renewed U.S.-Canada trade dispute creates a particularly important risk for North Dakota. Canada bought roughly $7 billion of North Dakota goods in 2025—about 81% of the state’s goods exports. New Canadian retaliatory tariffs are scheduled to begin September 8 after U.S.-Canada negotiations broke down.

Watch: Two national reports with direct relevance to North Dakota businesses arrive later this morning: July new-home sales and August consumer confidence. Housing demand matters to contractors and suppliers; consumer confidence can provide an early read on whether households are becoming more cautious with discretionary spending.

Today’s Signals

1. Trade / Manufacturing / Main Street: Canada dispute deserves more attention in North Dakota than in most states

What changed

U.S.-Canada trade negotiations broke down over the weekend. Canada says it will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products beginning September 8. On Monday, President Trump also threatened a 50% tariff on Canadian-made cars, trucks and auto parts beginning January 1, 2027 if the dispute is not resolved.

The final product lists and implementation details matter, so businesses should not assume every cross-border purchase or sale will face a 50% tariff.

What is clear is that North Dakota has unusually high exposure to the relationship.

The U.S. Trade Representative reports that North Dakota exported about $7 billion in goods to Canada in 2025, representing roughly 81% of all North Dakota goods exports. Canada is by far the state’s largest foreign market.

Who it affects

Manufacturers, machinery companies, agricultural processors, exporters, trucking and logistics companies, contractors buying Canadian building materials, vehicle and equipment dealers, border-area businesses and North Dakota companies with Canadian suppliers or customers.

Why it matters

For North Dakota, this isn’t simply an international-trade story.

A prolonged dispute can affect businesses from both directions:

• North Dakota products could become more expensive for Canadian customers if retaliation reaches their category.
• Canadian materials or equipment entering North Dakota could become more expensive.
• Businesses may delay purchases or contracts simply because they don’t know what the final tariff structure will be.

The exposure reaches small businesses, too. USTR reports that 84% of North Dakota companies exporting goods were small or medium-sized businesses in the latest available data.

Businesses that buy from or sell into Canada should identify that exposure now rather than waiting for September invoices to reveal it.

Source links:
Reuters — Canada retaliatory tariffs after trade talks fail

Reuters — proposed 50% Canadian vehicle and parts tariff

U.S. Trade Representative — North Dakota trade profile

2. Energy / Western North Dakota: Oil production and drilling activity moved higher

What changed

North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources reported that June oil production averaged 1.153 million barrels per day, compared with 1.125 million barrels per day in May.

That’s roughly a 2.5% monthly increase and puts production slightly above the state’s revenue forecast of 1.15 million barrels per day.

Natural-gas production also increased, reaching approximately 3.58 billion cubic feet per day.

DMR reported 24 North Dakota drilling rigs on the Baker Hughes monthly measure for August, with the state’s own data indicating drilling activity had increased materially from July. Oil prices have also been running well above the level built into the state revenue forecast.

Who it affects

Oilfield service companies, truckers, contractors, equipment dealers and repair businesses, lodging and restaurants in western North Dakota, professional-service firms and communities whose local economy depends on energy-sector activity.

Why it matters

Production volume matters, but activity level may matter more to businesses serving the industry.

An existing well can produce oil without generating much new business for a welder, trucker or equipment company. More rigs and completion activity create additional demand for labor, materials, transportation, repair and services.

There is also a statewide implication. Oil production and price both affect state tax collections, which eventually influence public budgets and spending.

This does not mean another Bakken boom is underway. It does mean activity strengthened enough in the newest report that businesses tied to western North Dakota should pay attention.

Source links:
North Dakota DMR — Director’s Cut

Risk / Opportunity

Risk: North Dakota’s unusually close economic relationship with Canada makes the latest trade fight far more relevant here than a generic tariff headline would suggest. Businesses do not need to predict what Washington or Ottawa will do next. They do need to know whether a supplier, customer, product or contract crosses that border.

Opportunity: Western North Dakota energy activity strengthened in the newest state report. Businesses that serve the oilfield should watch rig and completion activity, not just oil-production totals, because that is where additional demand for labor, hauling, equipment and services tends to show up.