What changed • Who it affects • Why it matters
Statewide Business Pulse
▲ Moving: A new national analysis of North Dakota’s economy published Thursday points to a mismatch worth watching: the state ranks near the top nationally in production and workforce participation, but near the bottom in new-business formation. The analysis places North Dakota 43rd among the 50 states and D.C. in business applications per capita using the latest comparable Census data.
▬ Stable: Today’s broad scan did not uncover a new statewide tax, credit, utility or employment change important enough to add simply to lengthen the briefing.
▼ Down / Under Pressure: A federal judge ruled Thursday that the U.S. Department of Labor unlawfully changed how wages are calculated under the H-2A agricultural guest-worker program. The judge left the current rule temporarily in place to avoid immediate disruption but ordered DOL to redo it—and to notify employers about possible back-pay obligations.
Watch: The U.S. Small Business Administration is proposing a substantial rewrite of the rules determining which companies qualify as “small.” If finalized, SBA estimates roughly 114,500 additional businesses would qualify, potentially changing the competitive field for federal small-business contracts and other SBA programs. Current standards remain in effect.
Today’s Signals
1. Small Business / Federal Contracting: SBA wants to change who qualifies as “small”
What changed
The SBA has proposed replacing much of its current industry-by-industry system for determining whether a company qualifies as a small business.
Today, SBA applies size standards across roughly 978 six-digit NAICS industries, generally using either annual receipts or employee counts. The proposal would consolidate those into 338 broader standards and eliminate 18 existing subindustry exceptions.
SBA estimates the change would result in a net increase of approximately 114,541 businesses classified as small.
That includes an estimated 37,002 existing federal contractors that held more than 105,000 federal contracts worth approximately $71 billion in fiscal year 2025.
Who it affects
North Dakota construction companies, manufacturers, engineering firms, technology companies, professional-service firms and other businesses that pursue federal contracts or participate in programs tied to SBA size standards.
Why it matters
“Small business” isn’t simply a descriptive term in federal contracting. It determines who can compete for contracts reserved for small businesses.
Higher size thresholds could allow growing companies to retain small-business status longer. They could also bring larger competitors into bidding pools currently limited to smaller firms.
That makes this potentially good or bad news depending on where a North Dakota company sits within its industry.
Nothing changes yet. This is a proposed rule, and current size standards remain in effect.
Source links:
U.S. Small Business Administration — proposed size-standard overhaul
Mayer Brown — detailed analysis of proposed standards and contracting implications
2. Entrepreneurs / Economic Development: North Dakota produces plenty—but starts comparatively few companies
What changed
A new analysis published August 27 examined something that receives considerably less attention than North Dakota’s unemployment rate or energy production: business formation.
Using Census Bureau business-application data, Technical.ly reports that North Dakota generated roughly 1,000 business applications per 100,000 residents, compared with approximately 1,500 nationally in the latest comparable data.
That placed North Dakota 43rd among states and Washington, D.C.
The gap was even larger among “high-propensity” applications—the Census category identifying applications most likely to become businesses with employees. North Dakota produced barely half the national average.
Who it affects
Entrepreneurs, Main Street businesses, makers and artisans considering turning side businesses into larger operations, lenders, economic-development organizations and communities trying to build their next generation of employers.
Why it matters
North Dakota usually looks strong when economic performance is measured by what existing industries produce.
Business formation measures something different: whether new employers are being created.
The same analysis notes some significant advantages North Dakota already possesses, including widespread rural fiber access, commercial unmanned-aircraft infrastructure, two R1 research universities and high workforce participation. Yet those assets haven’t translated into equally strong business-creation numbers.
For communities trying to strengthen Main Street, replacing businesses that close may be as important over time as recruiting an outside company.
And for an existing small business, the numbers raise a practical question: Are there people already making, repairing, designing or selling something on the side who could become tomorrow’s local employer if the barriers to taking the next step were easier to navigate?
Source link:
3. Agriculture / Workforce: H-2A wage ruling creates uncertainty—and possible back-pay exposure
What changed
A federal judge ruled Thursday that the Department of Labor unlawfully changed the wage formula used in the H-2A temporary agricultural worker program.
The 2025 rule lowered required wages for some H-2A workers by changing how DOL calculated prevailing pay and allowed employers to deduct certain housing costs.
The judge found the administration hadn’t adequately justified the wage change and ruled the housing deduction unlawful.
The court did not immediately throw out the existing rule, citing the disruption that could cause during the agricultural season.
Instead, DOL was ordered to redo the regulation and notify employers about potential back-pay obligations.
Who it affects
North Dakota farms and agricultural operations using H-2A workers, agricultural employers planning future seasonal labor needs, payroll providers and advisers serving those businesses.
Why it matters
The immediate issue isn’t simply what workers will be paid next season.
Employers that relied on the current federal wage calculation could potentially face retroactive wage costs, depending on what DOL does in response to the ruling.
Because the current rule remains temporarily in place, employers shouldn’t independently change payroll based solely on yesterday’s court decision. But North Dakota operations using H-2A labor should watch DOL guidance closely and talk with their payroll or employment adviser about potential exposure.
Source link:
Reuters — federal court orders Labor Department to redo H-2A wage changes
Risk / Opportunity
Risk: Agricultural employers using H-2A labor now have an unresolved payroll liability question. The current rule hasn’t disappeared, but the possibility of back pay means this is one court decision affected employers shouldn’t file away and forget.
Opportunity: North Dakota has strong productive industries, workforce participation, broadband and research capacity, yet business-formation numbers remain weak. That’s a gap worth paying attention to because future Main Street employers may already exist as very small businesses, side businesses and makers that haven’t yet made the jump to becoming larger employers.